The numbers are likely similar for the previous 6 years we've made projections, meaning there are likely around 300 other equivalent predictions we've made, of which we don't believe any have occurred. That's 384 individual odds, and this tournament alone we count 42 other predictions in the 0.1%-0.3% range, none of which occurred. While the 500-1 odds immediately seem like they must have been wrong based on the fact that the event actually happened, it's important to keep in mind how many miniscule odds we assign each tournament.Įach tournament we predict odds that each of the 64 teams will advance to each of the 6 subsequent levels of the tournament. Prior to the first real round, our NCAA Tournament Odds gave Loyola-Chicago only a 0.2% chance of advancing to the Final Four, and their 7.8 (net points per game better than the D-I average) rating was pretty typical for an 11-seed. But exactly how surprising is an intriguing question that is rather difficult to answer with a high level of certainty. Loyola-Chicago's cinderella Final Four run in the 2018 NCAA Tournament has been unquestionably surprising.

Loyola vs michigan odds and spread